THE CEO of the NNPCL, Bashir Ojulari, has drawn a clear line between political ambition and operational reality in Nigeria’s oil production debate, insisting that credible planning, not wishful targets will determine whether the country can sustainably approach two million barrels per day.
Speaking at the 9th NIES fireside chat, Ojulari addressed the widespread scepticism over Nigeria’s recurring production targets, which have ranged between 1.8 million and 3 million barrels per day in recent years.
“The first thing is to separate political numbers from aspirations and from plans,” he said. “Every time you hear a number, check who is saying it and what role they play.”
Ojulari explained that NNPCL accounts for about 95 per cent of Nigeria’s oil production through joint ventures and partnerships, making it central to national output forecasts.
Upon assuming office, he said the new leadership quickly reviewed existing targets and concluded that there were not backed by deliverable building blocks.
Within one month, the NNPCL submitted a revised production plan to its board, breaking projections down on a monthly basis.
The revised 2025 plan pegged production at about 1.703 million barrels per day, lower than previous projections but, crucially, achievable.
“We delivered about 1.7 million barrels per day,” he said. “We didn’t promise what we couldn’t deliver.”
Ojulari noted that the NNPCL took the unusual step of personally validating production commitments with managing directors of partner companies.
When several partners admitted they could not meet initial forecasts, the company reopened negotiations, delaying final projections by months to ensure realism.
“That’s accountability,” he said. “You can’t promise the country something you know you can’t deliver.”
The result, he said, was a production plan credible enough for the Federal Executive Council to adopt as the basis for Nigeria’s three-year fiscal framework.
While the government retained an aspirational target of two million barrels per day for 2026, the budget itself was based on a more conservative estimate of about 1.8 million barrels per day.
Ojulari warned that over-projection has real consequences, noting that Nigeria’s fiscal stress last year was worsened by both lower oil prices and lower-than-forecast production.
“Overshooting production means overshooting revenue,” he said. “And contracts are already signed based on those numbers.”
On OPEC quotas, Ojulari urged moderation, explaining that Nigeria’s submissions to the association are aspirational capacity declarations rather than firm commitments.
“You don’t go to OPEC and submit exactly what you can do,” he said. “You give yourself room to grow.”
While confident that the NNPCL will deliver its current plan, Ojulari, however, stressed that long-term growth hinges on rebuilding investment pipelines, restoring investor confidence, and sustaining security gains.
“Do I believe we will deliver this year’s plan? Absolutely,” he said. “But this is not a destination, it’s a journey.”