The first few days of October present a striking contradiction. Despite the Federal government expanding its Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) programme and President Bola Tinubu’s October 1 deadline for reduced transportation costs, passengers on several major routes still face increased fares.
High petrol prices, maintenance, spare parts, road conditions, demand, and the rising CNG conversion cost are driving up transportation costs across Nigeria’s intercity corridors, including Abuja and Lagos.
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The result is a widening gap between the national policy ambition of cheaper transportation and commuters’ everyday experience at motor parks and bus stops.
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President Tinubu’s October 1 target was intended to move the CNG conversation beyond government announcements and infrastructure deployment into the pockets of ordinary Nigerians.
In a September 19 statement, the President said the Federal Government, working with the 36 State governors, had established an implementation committee for the National Affordable CNG Transit Programme. The objective, he said, is for Nigerians to begin experiencing measurable reductions in transportation costs from October 1.
Reports, however, reveal inconsistent experiences, especially on routes primarily serviced by petrol-powered commercial vehicles.
At the El-Rufai Motor Terminal in Nyanya, Abuja, passengers travelling to Minna, Niger State, now pay about N9,000, compared with ₦7,000 two weeks earlier. According to the vice chairman of the park, who identified himself as Abdullahi, the N2,000 increase represents roughly a 29 per cent rise within two weeks.
At Keffi Park, also in Nyanya, transport operators said passengers travelling to Jos, Plateau State, now pay about N12,000, while the fare to Lafia, Nasarawa State, has risen to approximately N10,000.
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The increases significantly impact commuters, especially those with stagnant incomes. A N2,000 surge in a single interstate journey can rapidly accumulate into tens of thousands of naira in extra monthly transport costs.
The pressure is not confined to short intercity journeys. At the Sani Abacha Central Park, in Karu, Nasarawa State, another major transport hub serving northern destinations, a passenger travelling by bus to Maiduguri, Borno State, now pays about N22,000. The fare to Kano is around N10,000, while passengers travelling to Bauchi are paying approximately N12,000. Transport operators attribute the increases principally to the rising cost of running their vehicles.
Petrol prices reached approximately N1,405 per litre at an NNPC station and N1,400 per litre at a Rain Oil outlet on Abacha Road, Nasarawa State. These high fuel costs significantly increase operating expenses for long-distance commercial operators, even before considering maintenance, wages, and other road-related expenditures.
The implication is that the petrol-dependent transport system remains vulnerable to every movement in the price of energy.
The Lagos experience further illustrates the challenge of immediately translating CNG intervention into nationwide fare reductions.
Barely 48 hours after the President’s October 1 target, reports of survey across Agege, Ikeja and Oshodi said that commuters on some major routes are still paying prevailing fares. From Toll Gate, on the Lagos-Ogun boundary, to Agege, passengers were paying approximately N1,000 during the morning peak, with the fare falling to about N800 in the afternoon. The Toll Gate-Oshodi journey was around N1,200.
Morning and afternoon fare differences highlight demand’s impact on transport pricing. Operators can adjust fares based on passenger traffic and vehicle availability, even when fuel costs are a primary concern.
Yet Lagos is also one of the states where the Federal government’s CNG transport intervention is becoming increasingly visible.
On September 30, the Lagos Metropolitan Area Transport Authority (LAMATA) announced the delivery of 20 additional high-capacity CNG buses under the Presidential Initiative on CNG and Electric Vehicles. According to LAMATA Managing Director Abimbola Akinajo, the latest delivery brought the number of CNG buses available to Lagos’ regulated public transport system to approximately 170. The new buses are expected to be deployed on selected corridors based on passenger demand.
However, their arrival hasn’t immediately led to lower fares on all major commercial routes, especially those dominated by private bus companies.
This highlights a core issue with the CNG policy: boosting alternative-energy vehicle supply doesn’t automatically cut journey costs.
CNG offers commercial drivers a cost-saving alternative to petrol, promoted by the Federal government to reduce transportation expenses post-subsidy. However, converting existing petrol vehicles to CNG requires an initial investment.
Converting commercial buses and vans to CNG or electric typically costs N450,000 to N800,000, depending on the vehicle and kit. While government subsidies are available, this expense can still be a barrier for drivers relying on daily income.
The irony lies in the fact that technology promising lower operating costs often necessitates an initial investment that many transport operators find prohibitive. For instance, a driver may recognise CNG’s potential for reducing fuel expenditure but be unable to afford the conversion currently.
The Federal government reports its CNG programme is gaining momentum, with President Tinubu stating in September that over 120,000 vehicles had been converted, and more than 400 certified conversion centres and 90 CNG refueling stations operational nationwide. The Presidency also noted that reduced transportation costs on selected routes demonstrate the positive impact of cheaper energy.
CNG-powered commercial vehicles in Abuja have led to reduced fares on certain routes, such as the reported N700 to N420 drop on the Nyanya route. This demonstrates that with the right infrastructure, converted vehicles, and operational setup, the CNG policy can effectively lower transportation costs. However, these benefits are not yet consistently observed across traditional motor parks.
Commuters from Nyanya to Minna may not use the same vehicles as those on subsidised CNG routes.
Similarly, privately operated buses from Toll Gate to Oshodi might have different economic implications than regulated CNG mass transit. This creates a two-tiered transport system: one benefiting from alternative energy, the other still vulnerable to petrol price fluctuations.
The current transport crisis cannot be separated from the events of June 2023, when the Federal Government removed the petrol subsidy. The policy triggered a sharp increase in the cost of transportation and contributed to broader increases in household expenditure.
In response, the government announced measures intended to cushion the effect, including the accelerated deployment of CNG buses. Three years later, the government is still attempting to move the transport system away from its dependence on petrol.
The CNG programme is therefore not an isolated intervention. It represents part of a longer transition from a petrol-dominated transport economy towards one built around cheaper and more diversified energy sources.
The problem for commuters is that their bills do not wait for the transition to be completed. The current situation presents a complicated picture of Nigeria’s transport system. The country is simultaneously expanding cleaner-energy public transport while large sections of the commercial transport industry continue to depend on petrol. There are new CNG buses, conversion centres and refueling stations on one side.
On the other are thousands of commercial vehicles whose owners must confront high conversion costs, limited access to CNG infrastructure in some areas and the continuing cost of petrol.
There is also the question of maintenance. Even if fuel expenditure falls, operators still have to finance vehicle repairs, tyres, spare parts, insurance, licensing, personnel and other operational expenses.
Consequently, cheaper fuel alone cannot guarantee a proportional reduction in passenger fares.
For government policy to achieve its full transport objective, the savings must move through the entire value chain – from energy suppliers and vehicle operators to the passenger.
The debate over Nigeria’s transport future is, therefore, moving into a critical phase. The initial question was whether the country could introduce CNG buses and create an alternative to petrol.
The next question is more difficult: can that alternative fundamentally change what Nigerians pay to travel?
The evidence from parts of Abuja and Lagos suggests that the answer is not yet consistent.
In Nyanya, some intercity fares have risen despite the October 1 target. In Lagos, passengers on the Toll Gate-Agege and Toll Gate-Oshodi corridors continue to pay substantial fares despite the expanding CNG bus fleet. This does not necessarily mean the CNG programme has failed. Rather, it indicates that the transition from alternative-energy investment to economy-wide fare reduction remains incomplete.
The ultimate test will not be the number of buses delivered, vehicles converted or refueling stations commissioned. It will be visible in the daily budget of the Nigerian commuter.
If a worker spends less getting to work, if a student can travel to school at a lower cost, if traders can move between markets without sacrificing a larger share of their income, then the benefits of the energy transition will have become tangible.
Until that happens across a significant portion of the country’s transport network, the October 1 promise will remain, for many Nigerians, more evident in policy documents than at the motor park.
For now, the Nigerian transport system stands between two realities: an emerging CNG-powered future and a petrol – dependent present – and commuters are paying the price while the two systems converge.
- Media Report