- Says Nigerians will decide
The battle for the 2027 presidency has taken a fresh turn as the African Democratic Congress (ADC) Presidential Campaign Council rejected a projection by The Economist suggesting that President Bola Tinubu might retain the presidency.
The Atiku Abubakar campaign described the projection as a forecast that cannot determine the eventual choice of Nigerian voters, insisting that the electorate – not analysts, incumbency or political structures – would decide the outcome of the election.
Phrank Shaibu, Director of Strategic Communications of the ADC Presidential Campaign Council, said the factors identified in The Economist report, including incumbency and access to ruling-party structures, could influence an election but should not be interpreted as evidence of popular support.
In a statement titled “No forecast can overrule the people: Nigerians will vote out Tinubu and elect Atiku,” Shaibu challenged the publication’s assessment of the political landscape.
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“These factors matter. But they are not the same as public consent, and none can tell us how Nigerians will vote in January. A forecast is not a verdict,” he said.
The controversy comes as opposition parties struggle to present a united front against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), with Atiku contesting under the ADC while Peter Obi is running on the platform of the New Democratic Congress (NDC), according to the report.
The Economist had identified opposition fragmentation as one of the factors potentially shaping the 2027 contest, alongside incumbency, religion and voter behaviour.
But Shaibu argued that economic hardship and insecurity could become more important factors in determining voters’ choices.
He pointed to the rising cost of food, transportation, education, electricity and business operations, arguing that Nigerians judge economic conditions by what their incomes can actually purchase.
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He also cited inflation at 15.39 per cent in August and food inflation at 19.57 per cent year-on-year, while cautioning that a slower rate of price increases does not necessarily mean that prices have fallen.
The ADC spokesman equally rejected the argument that low voter turnout could automatically work in favour of the incumbent.
According to him, the relatively low turnout recorded in the 2023 presidential election could have resulted from voter apathy, insecurity, logistical challenges, distrust of the electoral process or the belief that voting would not change the outcome.
“Tinubu won the election; he did not receive the votes of most registered voters,” Shaibu said.
Meanwhile, Atiku’s media adviser, Paul Ibe, has separately criticised President Tinubu’s Independence Day address, accusing the President of failing to adequately address the country’s security challenges.
Ibe alleged that the President’s speech did not sufficiently address killings, kidnappings, mass abductions and attacks on communities, despite references to insecurity and commendation of security forces.
The latest exchanges are adding to the political temperature ahead of 2027, with the Tinubu administration’s economic record, security performance, opposition unity and voter participation emerging as major issues likely to shape the campaign.
For the opposition, the central argument is that forecasts cannot substitute for ballots. For the ruling camp, however, the coming election will ultimately be decided by voters at the polling units – not projections published months before the contest.